Mumbai: The GDP growth rate in India is expected to continue in the 7-8% range in the July-September quarter.
India’s GDP increased by 20.1% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021-22 compared to the same time the previous year.
According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited’s (MOFSL) EcoScope study, growth in the Economic Activity Index- Gross Value Added (EAI- GVA) would moderate in July 2021, owing to lower government spending.
Private expenditure, consumption, and investments, on the other hand, have increased steadily, according to the report.
“Despite the fact that there is no one-to-one connection between our EAIS and official GDP/ GVA owing to underlying disparities, our composite indices move in lockstep with official real GDP (ex-discrepancies) and real GVA estimates,” it added.
“As a result, we anticipate real GVA growth of 7-8% YoY in 2QFY22, compared to 20.1 percent YoY in IQFY22.”
Total consumption increased 5.1 percent YoY in July 2021, according to Motilal Oswal, compared to 2.7 percent in June 2021 and -12.1 percent in July 2020.
Within consumption, private consumption increased at a three-month high of 6.9% YoY in July 2021, while government consumption decreased by 31% YoY.
EAI-GVA increased at a quicker rate of 7.1 percent YoY in July 2021, compared to 3.2 percent YoY in June 2021, but at a lesser rate from March to May 2021.
Furthermore, a higher increase in imports than exports resulted in a negative contribution to EAI GDP from foreign trade in July 2021.
In July 2021, total investments rose at a five-month low of 12.1% YoY, compared to 18.5 percent in June 2021 and a 21% drop in July 2020.